also that's a rather mean, I mean it's a rather counterintuitive concept that most people with an education through high school won't have come across, so just because they don't get it immediately doesn't make them idiots
jeez
no, but people get really mad about this for some reason? Like really mad, I've seen it with my own eyes.
Yeah, but that's not a stupidity thing.
Idris Elba and Matthew McICannotSpellHisLastName seem like they might make an amazing Roland Deschain and Walter/Randall Flagg/Man in Black
Now I'm thinking of how vos Savant's solution to the Monty Hall problem got her hundreds of mathematicians, with PhDs, telling her that she was wrong.
There is no way in hell I will be able to comprehend the answer to this question
but
Couldn't the difference between a two thirds chance and a one half chance be considered a matter of perspective?
The simplest way of putting it that I've found is this: If you have a 2/3 chance of picking a goat, and another goat is revealed, there's still probably a goat behind the door you picked, because there isn't an overall reduction in goat.
Maybe I'm just approaching this from the wrong vector
But isn't assigning probabilities rather arbitrary? Could a singular event have two probabilities simultaneously? Honest question. I don't know this kind of advanced math and that's just the way I always thought of this particular issue.
I understand Savant's idea, I just want to know if the idea that a singular event can have multiple probabilities associated with it depending on context provided
like if you take a situation where someone is selecting 1 door from x amount of doors, where (x-1) is how many doors contain a dud prize, then after they make their selection (x-2) (or more technically (x-s-1) where s is the amount of selections the person made) dud doors are opened there is one probability
however just accounting for that final step, where there are only two choices: dud prize or actual prize there is the 1/2 chance most people find most immediately intuitive
you know as I explain my reasoning here I'm kind of talking myself out of it
Decimal notation seems to inherently lead to asymptotes. Visually speaking, any attempt to say "0.999... is 1" is going to look counterintuitive for that reason. The only way to prove it without splitting hairs, to my mind, is to say it's three thirds or nine ninths, which is one.
decimal notation basically lets you represent "arbitrary" real numbers as a sequence of rationals, like, 0.9 is 9/10, 0.99 is 99/100, etc. which is interesting because that is actually a cauchy sequence, which is one of the ways irrational numbers are constructed mathematicalwise.
and fuck monty hall. i know why it's like that but it still doesn't make damn sense.
You are the end result of a “would you push the button” prompt where the prompt was “you have unlimited godlike powers but you appear to all and sundry to be an impetuous child” – Zero, 2022
I understand Savant's idea, I just want to know if the idea that a singular event can have multiple probabilities associated with it depending on context provided
like if you take a situation where someone is selecting 1 door from x amount of doors, where (x-1) is how many doors contain a dud prize, then after they make their selection (x-2) (or more technically (x-s-1) where s is the amount of selections the person made) dud doors are opened there is one probability
however just accounting for that final step, where there are only two choices: dud prize or actual prize there is the 1/2 chance most people find most immediately intuitive
you know as I explain my reasoning here I'm kind of talking myself out of it
this actually ties into a big debate over statistics, the "frequentists" versus the "bayesians". a frequentist would say that events have one objective probability, a bayesian would say that there are no objective probabilities and it's all subjective.
you're sort of thinking about what's called "conditional probability". you can impose conditions on a probability, like: the probability of drawing a spade from a deck of cards given that you've already taken out the ace of spades (the condition) is 12/52.
I understand Savant's idea, I just want to know if the idea that a singular event can have multiple probabilities associated with it depending on context provided
like if you take a situation where someone is selecting 1 door from x amount of doors, where (x-1) is how many doors contain a dud prize, then after they make their selection (x-2) (or more technically (x-s-1) where s is the amount of selections the person made) dud doors are opened there is one probability
however just accounting for that final step, where there are only two choices: dud prize or actual prize there is the 1/2 chance most people find most immediately intuitive
you know as I explain my reasoning here I'm kind of talking myself out of it
this actually ties into a big debate over statistics, the "frequentists" versus the "bayesians". a frequentist would say that events have one objective probability, a bayesian would say that there are no objective probabilities and it's all subjective.
you're sort of thinking about what's called "conditional probability". you can impose conditions on a probability, like: the probability of drawing a spade from a deck of cards given that you've already taken out the ace of spades (the condition) is 12/52.
"Guns don't kill people; people kill people" well you know it's harder to kill someone with a knife than with a gun if that's really what you're concerned about.
It is true that Aristotle held that there could be form without matter, though no matter without form. But according to him, the only entities which possessed form without matter, were the divine prime mover, the intelligent demiurges that moved the spheres, and perhaps [the rational soul] of man. Some of these are factors in which experimental science has never been very much interested.
my struggle: i like the writing of classically trained, epistemologically thoughtful scientists a lot, but i really really don't want to read all that aristotle
You are the end result of a “would you push the button” prompt where the prompt was “you have unlimited godlike powers but you appear to all and sundry to be an impetuous child” – Zero, 2022
The undergrad physics labs at OSU have Windows 7 laptops with no wireless capability.
Where do you even get computers like that? Did they have to specially order computers with no wireless cards?
Reading the discussion going on in the "agnostic atheist" thread and this one made me feel pretty dumb. On one hand, I do sort of want to understand the high level stuff people talk about here sometimes. On the other hand, trying to engage with that stuff might require asking people to dumb stuff down (which I would rather not do) and thinking about difficult stuff tends to just give me a headache anyway.
You are the end result of a “would you push the button” prompt where the prompt was “you have unlimited godlike powers but you appear to all and sundry to be an impetuous child” – Zero, 2022
Little details that don't follow logically but ultimately are of no consequence: when I picture electronics in Centralia, I tend to imagine North American plugs/outlets because they're the "default" for me.
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and fuck monty hall. i know why it's like that but it still doesn't make damn sense.
you're sort of thinking about what's called "conditional probability". you can impose conditions on a probability, like: the probability of drawing a spade from a deck of cards given that you've already taken out the ace of spades (the condition) is 12/52.
Assassin poems, Poems that shoot
guns. Poems that wrestle cops into alleys
and take their weapons leaving them dead
People kill people.
Both guns and people kill people.
"Guns don't kill people; people kill people" well you know it's harder to kill someone with a knife than with a gun if that's really what you're concerned about.
Assassin poems, Poems that shoot
guns. Poems that wrestle cops into alleys
and take their weapons leaving them dead
Assassin poems, Poems that shoot
guns. Poems that wrestle cops into alleys
and take their weapons leaving them dead
Assassin poems, Poems that shoot
guns. Poems that wrestle cops into alleys
and take their weapons leaving them dead
Time to go back to anime soccer I guess, haha.
Assassin poems, Poems that shoot
guns. Poems that wrestle cops into alleys
and take their weapons leaving them dead
Assassin poems, Poems that shoot
guns. Poems that wrestle cops into alleys
and take their weapons leaving them dead
Assassin poems, Poems that shoot
guns. Poems that wrestle cops into alleys
and take their weapons leaving them dead